Markets are full of predictions that cannot be checked until after the fact. Implied probability is different. It is already priced, already quantified, and therefore testable.

Over the last week, Treasury 2-year yields moved to 4.27% this week from 4.29% last week. At 10 years, this week’s yield is 4.63%, compared with 4.6% last week. As a result, the current 2-year/10-year ...

Please Note: Blog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors. The blue line is the banking subsidiary's one year default probability using ...

An unprecedented inversion of the U.S. yield curve led to a sharp increase in the New York Fed's recession probability estimates. A one-month Treasury bill currently yields 2.2% more than a 10-year ...